The race to reach the URC play-offs will go right down to the wire
Positivity has been few and far between in Welsh rugby this season but this weekend was certainly one to treasure for professional rugby in Wales.
On Friday night Cardiff claimed a noteworthy 26-21 victory over Munster in front of over 11,000 fans at the Arms Park, while the Scarlets stunned table-toppers Leinster with a 35-22 win in Llanelli which condemned the Irish side to just their second defeat of the season. Given the financial gap between the Welsh clubs and the Irish provinces, these victorious should not be sniffed at, even if Leinster did rest a host of first-choice players ahead of next weekend’s Investec Champions Cup semi-final against Northampton Saints.
The Ospreys also remain in the hunt for a place in the United Rugby Championship play-offs after they demolished the Dragons 57-24 in Swansea. Filo Tiatia’s Dragons have been out of contention for a while but three Welsh clubs are in with a shout going into the final two fixtures of the regular season.
We now know four of the eight teams in the play-offs – Leinster, Glasgow, Bulls and Sharks – while there are still 10 teams in with a chance of claiming one of the other four slots with two rounds to go.
Those 10, from fifth to 14th in the table, are separated by 11 points. 25% OFF DEAL NOW: Sign up to Inside Welsh rugby on Substack to get exclusive news stories and insight from behind the scenes in Welsh rugby.
Here is what Cardiff, Scarlets and Ospreys need to get out of their South African tours and the results which need to go their way if they are to reach the URC play-offs and qualify for next season’s Investec Champions Cup.
Cardiff
Friday night’s heroics have catapulted Cardiff up to fifth in the table but there are only eight points separating Wales’ capital city club and Ulster in 12th place. That’s how tight everything is.
Aside from a trip to take on Leinster in Dublin, Cardiff face arguably the toughest challenge in the URC next up as they take on the Bulls at Loftus Versfeld.
The Bulls are flying high in third place after beating Glasgow on their own patch, so the Blue & Blacks will do well to get anything out of their trip to Pretoria.
It doesn’t get any easier the following week when they rock up in Cape Town for a clash with the Stormers who are currently in sixth place, just one point behind Cardiff.
Technically Cardiff could reach the play-offs even if they fail to claim a win in South Africa with so many of their play-off rivals facing each other. Join WalesOnline Rugby’s WhatsApp Channel here to get the breaking news sent straight to your phone for free
If this were the case they would need Benetton who are eighth to at least lose one of their remaining two fixtures at home to Glasgow and away to Munster, while Edinburgh slipping up in Connacht or at home to Ulster would also be handy.
Munster are also only five points behind Cardiff, while the Ospreys and Scarlets are also vying for a top-eight place.
One victory in South Africa would almost certainly see Matt Sherratt’s side through to the last eight but two losing bonus point could also be enough.
URC position: 5th (46 points)
Remaining fixtures: Pretoria Bulls (A) and Cape Town Stormers (A)
Scarlets
The Scarlets fired themselves back into contention with a stunning victory over Leinster, their first over the Irish giants since 2018.
Dwayne Peel’s side are in seventh position in the table with 43 points ahead of facing the Lions in Johannesburg and the Sharks in Durban.
The next game against the Lions is their big chance to seal a play-off place but it won’t be easy at altitude. Peel’s side put in their most complete performance of the season against Leinster and do have the natural talent behind the scrum to score tries against anyone with the likes of Johnny Williams, Joe Roberts, Blair Murray and Tom Rogers, among others, dangerous players.
But as always the challenge will be whether they have the physicality up-front to match the South Africans. They will need the likes of Taine Plumtree, Vaea Fifita, Sam Lousi, Marnus van der Merwe, Alec Hepburn, Henry Thomas and Alex Craig, among others, to carry hard to gain parity.
If they miss out on the last eight Peel’s side will look back on the the multitude of games they have lost by a score, whether that be the last-minute try they conceded against the Ospreys in December, Jack Carty’s late penalty which condemned them to defeat against Connacht or even the narrow loss in Ulster.
But the Lions game is their cup final, win that and the smart money is on the Scarlets reaching the play-offs.
URC position: 7th (43 points)
Remaining fixtures: Johannesburg Lions (A) and Durban Sharks (A)
Ospreys
It’s safe to say the Ospreys have a lot of heavy lifting to do if they are to reach the last eight of the URC but a bonus-point victory over the Dragons yesterday keeps them in contention for now.
The Ospreys have a tough task on their hands against a star-studded Sharks side in Durban next up before finishing at altitude against the Lions in Johannesburg.
Mark Jones’ side currently reside in 11th place, just three points outside the play-off places, and probably need two victories in South Africa to finish in the top eight.
As tough as it will be, it is achievable, certainly against the Lions who they beat in Johannesburg last season, but in all probability they will probably also need to overcome the Sharks which might be a step too far.
If you look at the table, Benetton are eighth on 41 points while Munster in ninth have the same tally. Munster host Ulster next up before finishing with a critical clash against Benetton, so the smart money is on the Irish province winning both times.
Edinburgh are a point above the Ospreys with a tricky trip to Galway to come before they finish at home to Ulster which they’ll expect to win. Get the latest breaking Welsh rugby news stories sent straight to your inbox with our FREE daily newsletter. Sign up here.
Realistically the Ospreys need two wins to reach the play-offs.
URC position: 11th (38 points)
Remaining fixtures: Durban Sharks (A) and Johannesburg Lions (A)
