Strategy corner – What to look out for in F1’s 2025 Chinese GP

Following a rainy Australian Grand Prix, a bone-dry race at Shanghai was supposed to be much more straightforward. But Saturday morning’s sprint has shown that the tyres will make mastering China anything but simple.

Going against the grain

A key word that has popped up all weekend is ‘graining’, a phenomenon in which the tyre surface becomes hotter than the underlying carcass, usually by putting too much sudden stress on tyres that aren’t up to their ideal temperature yet. That can lead to rubber pieces being sheared off and then sticking to the surface, reducing the contact patch with the circuit. While graining can be resolved over a stint, its effect severely impacts the level of grip on offer whenever it pops up, so limiting it as much as possible is crucial.

This is perhaps the number-one element to manage at Shanghai, which features extremely long and demanding corner sequences that stress the tyres, connected by long straights on which they cool off again. Shanghai is a front-limited track, meaning that the front tyres are receiving the biggest workout, with the front-left proverbially squealing in agony through the 270-degree first corner complex that is so key to a good lap. The track has recently been resurfaced and offers loads of grip, leading to new track records in qualifying, but the relative lack of rubber on the circuit at the start of the weekend made the graining effect worse.

Pirelli available tyre sets for the Chinese Grand Prix

Photo by: Pirelli

Some cars are inherently better than others at avoiding this phenomenon, but a lot is down to car set-up as well. One notable victim in the 19-lap sprint races was Lando Norris, who suffered front graining early on as the team took the wrong set-up choice to manage the issue. Max Verstappen in the Red Bull also had a tough time, being passed by Norris’ team-mate Oscar Piastri for second. Teams have had the opportunity to learn from the sprint and make wholesale set-up changes for the race, so it will be intriguing to see who got it right.

Avoiding the dirty air

What makes graining even more difficult to avoid is being stuck in dirty air, as the loss of downforce behind another car causes even more sliding and shearing of the tyres. It is part of why the likes of Norris struggled so much, and also a key element behind Lewis Hamilton’s dominant sprint victory. Hamilton led from pole, meaning he had clear air through the entire race, punishing his tyres less than the chasing Verstappen and Piastri.

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

“Definitely we have some improvements to do in the long run, because with Lando we had quite a lot of graining and he couldn’t make much progress during the sprint, while Oscar coped with the tyres a bit more comfortably,” McLaren chief Stella explained. “But it’s also true that Oscar had less dirty air, which is also important here.”

That means it is even more crucial to have a good start tomorrow. Piastri is in the hotseat after claiming his first grand prix pole, and if the Australian can keep his lead into Turn 1, he has already taken one important step towards victory. The hunt for clear air could also mean we will see drivers go off strategy to get out of the train of cars, with the undercut effect – pitting right before your direct rivals – quite powerful whenever tyre degradation is high, as the lap-time benefit from new tyres is bigger than usual.

How many pitstops?

The sprint format has already given us the luxury of a sneak peek of what might happen on Sunday, but the lack of pitstops made it a fairly drab affair. Adding undercutting strategies in the mix is set to spice up the main event. But because of that high tyre degradation, there isn’t as much strategic flexibility as teams might have liked if they want to get to the end on the fastest strategy. All 10 teams have kept their two sets of hard tyres for the race, and for good reason, as the optimal strategy according to Pirelli is a two-stopper.

“From what we collected from the sprint, the front-left graining is still there and the wear of the medium with 19 laps is quite high,” Pirelli motorsport chief Mario Isola said. “For some teams it was at the limit, that means we believe it’s a two-stop strategy; medium-hard-hard.”

Pirelli Tyre Strategies for the Chinese Grand PRix

Photo by: Pirelli

A three-stopper is possible as well, but Isola believes that because of the improving track conditions the graining problem will be not as bad on Sunday as in the sprint. “To be honest, I don’t think it’s a three-stop,” he explained. “Considering the track is improving and the graining is going to be less, a two-stop is feasible. If you start from the back the option is also to start on the hard and try something different or keep the medium for the last stint, that means with a lighter car you generate less graining, you can attack a bit more. The soft is not really an option.”

The best way to keep this generation of tyres under control is to bring them up to temperature gently and evenly and not push like hell from Lap 1. That is easier said than done when drivers are jousting for position in the opening stages of the race. But Isola stressed that not overusing the front-left tyre, especially through the Turn 1 complex, could pay dividends later in the stint.

“I believe it’s more about looking after the front left in the first couple of laps,” the Italian added. “Here you have a straight and then you have a 270-degree turn that is stressing immediately the front-left tyre when it’s still not at the optimal temperature and pressure. That means that you can start generating graining there, and if you manage this, then a two-stop is feasible.”

The question is who has made the best set-up changes after the sprint to improve tyre wear, but what is clear from Hamilton’s first sprint win with Ferrari is that the Chinese Grand Prix is a track-position race. Following Norris’ win in Australia, maiden polesitter Piastri is being handed a golden opportunity to get on terms with his team-mate.

Photos from Chinese GP – Sprint Race & Qualifying