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Milan-San Remo is the most unpredictable race in professional cycling. We knew that Tadej Pogačar was going to attack. We knew that UAE Team Emirates-XRG was going to push the pace on the Cipressa. But no one expected there to be only three riders left in contention with 25km to go.
It was one of the most incredible editions of Milan-San Remo in history, the current world champion gritting his teeth in trying to drop the former world champion, with the 86kg Italian in Filippo Ganna hot on their heels.
Nothing ever happens in the first 250 km of Milan-San Remo. But that’s only because the race is saving all of its excitement for the finale. It is the easiest race to finish but the hardest one to win. In this article, we’ll examine the power data from Milan-San Remo, including Tadej Pogačar’s record-shattering ascent of the Cipressa.
Could You Keep Up with the Pros at Milan-San Remo?
The first 200-250 km of Milan-San Remo are among the easiest in professional cycling. Most amateur cyclists could probably tailgun at the back of the peloton. It takes a long time to arrive at the base of the Capo climbs — but could you have survived?
Laurance – First 220 km of Milan-San Remo
- Time: 5:01:06
- Average Power: 195w (3w/kg)
- Normalized Power: 232w (3.6w/kg)
While we don’t have much of Pogačar’s power data, we can use data from Axel Laurance throughout this analysis. Laurance is about the same size as Pogačar at ~65 kg, and the Frenchman was on Pogačar’s wheel when the world champion attacked on the Cipressa. As you can see from his power file, the first 220 km of the race was quite relaxed.
The second phase of Milan-San Remo includes the Capo Climbs. In 15km, the peloton tackles the Capo Mele, Capo Cervo, and Capo Berta. It’s up to the riders to decide if the Capo climbs will affect the outcome of the race; in 2025, the answer was no.
That meant that the next part of the race would be incredibly explosive. In their behind-the-scenes YouTube video, UAE Team Emirates-XRG showed their pre-race plan. Discussed in the team bus the night before Milan-San Remo, the plan was always to launch Pogačar on the Cipressa. In fact, the team specifically names Tim Wellens, Isaac Del Toro, and Jhonatan Narváez as the leadout men for Pogačar.
With a slight tailwind behind them, the plan was to set the fastest time ever on the Cipressa. The team even showed a screenshot of the Cipressa Strava segment included in their pre-race meeting. So the plan was set, and less than 24 hours later the plan was executed on the penultimate climb of Milan-San Remo.
Wellens began the lead out, while Del Toro never made it to the front. The plan nearly fell apart, but Narváez cleaned up the mess by making it to the front part-way up the climb. The Ecuadorian sprinted out of each corner, stretching the field and nearly forcing it to break. And then…BOOM!
Pogačar launched off his teammates’ wheel at nearly 1000w, gapping nearly the entire peloton. Ganna tried hanging onto Pogačar’s wheel, while Van der Poel and Romain Grégoire were the only other riders who could follow the acceleration.
Pogačar – Cipressa Attack
- Time: 1:01
- Average Power: 630w (9.7w/kg)
Pogačar continued pushing full gas to the top of the climb, trying to break Ganna and MvdP. The Italian started struggling, but the Dutchman was glued to Pogačar’s wheel. Grégoire exploded, and then there were three left at the front of the race. By the base of the Poggio, the gap to the chasers was over 40 seconds. These three riders had just done the fastest Cipressa in history, and now they would fight for the win of Milan-San Remo.
Pogačar – Cipressa
- Time: 8:59
- Estimated Average Power: ~487w (7.5w/kg)
Laurance on the Cipressa: 9:42 at ~6w/kg
Ganna led the trio onto the Poggio, and it only took a few meters for Pogačar to launch his first attack. Van der Poel was straight onto his wheel, but Ganna couldn’t handle the acceleration and so the Italian went into time trial mode.
Pogačar attacked again and again, but he couldn’t shake MvdP. The Alpecin-Deceuninck rider even grabbed a bottle from the side of the road while following one of Pogačar’s attacks. Van der Poel asserted his dominance further by attacking Pogačar in the final 500 meters of the Poggio. The world champion was able to close the gap, but Pogačar was running out of ways to win the race.
Pogačar – Cipressa
- Time: 5:45
- Estimated Average Power: ~470w (7.3w/kg)
- First part of the Poggio: 2:33 at 530w (8.2w/kg)
Laurance on the Cipressa: 6:02 at~5.8w/kg
Known for his time trialing ability, Ganna came back to the leading duo in the final kilometer of Milan-San Remo. The trio began a game of cat-and-mouse with a few hundred meters to go, but to everyone’s surprise Van der Poel launched first.
In his post-race interview, Van der Poel said that he knows everyone thinks that he prefers a short sprint from a low speed. This would allow MVDP to use his superior acceleration to win the sprint. Little do they know that MVDP trains his long and short sprint power, so he is comfortable launching in a wide range. In this instance, he began his sprint at 300 meters to go in order to surprise Ganna and Pogačar. The plan worked perfectly. Van der Poel gapped Ganna with his first few pedal strokes, and Pogačar wasn’t able to make up the difference and so he crossed the line in third.
After one of the most thrilling Milan-San Remos in history, we might be left with more questions than answers. Is there any way in which Pogačar can win Milan-San Remo? How much faster can Pogačar climb the Cipressa? And can anyone beat Mathieu Van der Poel when he’s at his very best? We won’t have to wait long as Pogačar and MVDP face off this Friday at the E3 Saxo Classic.
Power Analysis data courtesy of Strava
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