Bonus points and points difference could launch Matt Sherratt’s team to the giddy heights of fifth place and avoid the Six Nations Wooden Spoon
Wales haven’t won a match in the men‘s Six Nations since beating Italy in Rome in March 2023. They’re also on a record-breaking run of 16 consecutive defeats, so there’s more at stake in Saturday’s Principality Stadium clash than victory – even if they fail to beat England.
Last year, Wales propped up the championship table as they picked up their first Wooden Spoon in 21 years, and they’re currently in danger of retaining the Six Nations “trophy” nobody wants to win. There is some hope, however. While five defeats would once have guaranteed a sixth-place finish, the introduction of bonus points means it’s now possible to avoid the Wooden Spoon without winning a single a game.
Read more: Wales rugby fixtures: Who the men’s and women’s teams are playing in 2025
Wales head into their final fixture with a chance of leapfrogging Italy into fifth place, and – because the Azzurri’s match against Ireland kicks off earlier in the day – will know exactly what they need to do to send the infamous cutlery to Rome.
Here’s what Wales need to do on Saturday to avoid the Wooden Spoon, based on what could happen at the Stadio Olimpico.
Related: How to watch Six Nations 2025 wherever you are in the world
The state of play
Heading into the final weekend of Six Nations fixtures, Italy sit in fifth place with four championship points (one win, three losses, no Six Nations bonus points) and a points difference of -77. Wales are in sixth with three championship points (no wins, four losses, three bonus points) and a superior points difference of -65.
Scenario 1: Italy lose to Ireland, earning no bonus points
This is obviously the ideal situation for Matt Sherratt’s team, as it gives them the least work to do on Saturday afternoon. If Italy lose by eight points or more to Ireland – and fail to score four tries – Wales will avoid the Wooden Spoon if:
- They can pick up a single bonus point against England
and - Their points difference in defeat to England is within 12 points of Italy’s against Ireland. (If Wales can pick up a losing bonus point for finishing within seven points of England, there’s no way for Italy to pick up the points difference deficit without beating Ireland.)
Result: Wales 4 points, Italy 4 points; Wales avoid the Wooden Spoon on points difference.
NB: In the unlikely scenario that both teams finish tied on championship points and points difference, the teams would be separated by tries scored. Heading into the final round of matches, both teams have touched down eight times.
Scenario 2: Italy lose to Ireland, earning a single bonus point
If Italy can score a quartet of tries on Saturday – or finish within seven points of the Irish – they’ll pile the pressure on Wales. To avoid the Wooden Spoon, Wales will either have to:
- Win a try-scoring BP and a losing BP
or - Draw against England
Result: Wales 5 points, Italy 5 points; Wales avoid the Wooden Spoon on points difference.
Scenario 3: Italy draw with Ireland (or lose with two bonus points)
It would be a major shock if Italy can draw with Ireland (or even pick up two bonus points in defeat), but if the Azzurri can leave the Stadio Olimpico with two championship points they’re in pole position for fifth place.
In this scenario, this is the minimum Wales need to do to avoid finishing at the foot of the table for a second year running:
- Draw with England and pick up a try-scoring bonus point
Result: Wales 6 points, Italy 6 points; Wales avoid the Wooden Spoon on points difference.
NB: Italy cannot win on points difference in either Scenario 2 or Scenario 3, as there’s no way they can make up their existing deficit on Wales.
Scenario 4: Italy draw and earn a try-scoring bonus
This is the point where Wales need to win to stand any chance of avoiding the Wooden Spoon. In the event of a bonus point draw for Italy, Wales would need:
Result: Wales 7 points, Italy 7 points; Wales avoid the Wooden Spoon on points difference
Scenario 5: Italy win
The odds are long on this one, but in the unlikely event of an Italy win in Rome, Wales would need a bonus point win. The requirements are as follows:
- Beat England and score four tries
- Ensure their points difference against England remains less than 12 points’ inferior to Italy’s against Ireland
Result: Wales 8 points, Italy 8 points; Wales avoid the Wooden Spoon on points difference
If Italy can pull off a bonus point win over Ireland, it’s game over for Wales, and the Wooden Spoon will be destined for Cardiff before a ball is kicked at the Principality Stadium.
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