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The 2025 men’s WorldTour season is hitting a new gear and cycling’s “Big 4” — Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, and Primož Roglič — are punching the accelerator in the race for the maillot jaune in Paris and winning the Tour de France.
The road to the Tour is always laden with booby traps, and so far, three of the Big 4 have already hit the deck in face-palm, season-altering crashes.
Evenepoel was “doored” in December and still hasn’t pinned on a race number. Vingegaard was tangled up in a bitter and brutal edition of Paris-Nice, and then scratched a start at Volta a Catalunya that triggered fresh question marks.
And Pogačar? He flew off his bike at Strade Bianche, brushed himself off, and still won.
Cycling’s super-hero might seem indestructible, but more than anything, he proved he’s very lucky as well.
So who’s floating through the carnage without a single scratch? Primož Roglič.
Yep, the crash-derby king is finally the one laughing, navigating the past several months with atypical serenity.
The big question now is will all four hit July with their form — and bones — fully intact?
Here’s how each of the Big 4 has navigated 2025 so far, and what it might mean come July in France:
Primož Roglič: No crashes … yet
2025 stats
Last race: 8th at Volta a Algarve (no wins)
Last crash: Stage 12 at the 2024 Tour de France
Upcoming races: Volta a Cataluna, Giro d’Italia, Tour de France
As the 2025 season barrels into the spring, Roglič is doing something he hasn’t done in years: staying upright.
While the rest of the Big 4 have already crashed — some worse than others — Roglič heads into the Volta a Catalunya this week as the last man standing, both literally and figuratively.
Roglič’s last major crash came during the 2024 Tour de France, where a heavy fall knocked him out of the race and derailed his debut season with Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe.
He later revealed he’d been riding the back half of the season with a fractured vertebra, and still managed to grit his way to a fourth Vuelta a España title.
That’s classic Rogla, battered, but victorious.
Since then? Roglič has been able to avoid the mishaps and crashes that so often have taken him out of the game. He’s focused on his ambitious campaign built around two massive goals: the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France.
Will his luck hold out? That’s the million-euro question.
Also read: Red Bull defends Roglič Giro-Tour double
At 35, Roglič cannot afford another heroic comeback from a broken collarbone or busted back. If anyone in the GC conversation needs a clean, drama-free build-up toward July, it’s him.
With Vingegaard sitting on the sidelines, this week across Catalunya is being billed as a GC battle between Juan Ayuso and Roglič. Ayuso will be racing to impress, but Roglič will be racing to not crash. He wants to leave Spain without any setbacks and pedal into the Giro and one final swing at Tour glory.
Red Bull said there are no changes in Roglič’s program, and insisted that the Giro is the best way for Roglič to approach what could be his last realistic chance to win the Tour de France.
Sport manager Rolf Aldag told Velo the Giro isn’t so hard that Roglič won’t be able to handle the three-week effort and still have something left for the Tour.
And if he wins the Giro, well, then there’s no pressure for the Tour.
The former ski jumper — it’s hard to write a story without saying that at least once — is flying below the radar and still very much in the hunt. A healthy Roglič is still very dangerous.
Jonas Vingegaard: No time for more setbacks
2025 stats
Last races: 1st Volta ao Algarve, DNF Paris-Nice
Last crash: Stage 5 Paris-Nice, did not start the next day
Upcoming races: Critérium du Dauphiné, Tour de France
During the Visma-Lease a Bike team camp back in January the narrative coming into 2025 was clear: Jonas Vingegaard was back.
Vingegaard looks to be fully recovered from his harrowing crash at Itzulia Basque Country last spring and is more determined than ever to win a third Tour de France crown.
And after pushing Pogačar deep into the third week last July — finishing second overall and taking a stage — giving the unstoppable Pogi a run for his money at the Tour in July was nearly as good as a win. Overall victory at the Tour de Pologne was an ideal way to book-end a very costly 2024 on a high.
Yet some warning lights were flashing in his first races of 2025.
Yes, he opened his campaign with a win at the Volta ao Algarve, but he lacked his usual icy dominance. João Almeida blew past him, first at the Algarve and again at Paris-Nice, a rare sight for the Dane who usually leads rivals choking on his dust in mountain stages.
Then came Paris-Nice, where Vingegaard once again looked solid but not spectacular only to see him go down in a high-speed crash on stage 5. He didn’t start the next day, citing a painful hand and deep bruising.
While the team downplayed the incident — no fractures, no panic — it was enough to scratch him from this week’s Volta a Catalunya. This kind of disruption is far from ideal for a rider who desperately needs a smooth run.
Also read: How Vingegaard’s exit will impact his Tour de France prep
The team is sticking to Vingegaard’s pathway to the Tour. The roadmap now is altitude, Critérium du Dauphiné, more altitude, and then a one-way ticket to Lille.
V-Lab and Vingegaard are under pressure to win back yellow. Pogačar and UAE are threatening to bulldoze them again.
Another setback could be the difference between adding another maillot jaune to his collection and watching Pogačar ride away again.
Vingegaard now will mix in recovery and altitude camps, and try to keep the accent on the positive and avoid hitting the deck again.
He’s still the only rider who has proven he can match and even beat Pogačar over three weeks. But to do that, everything needs to be perfect. So far, it hasn’t been.
Pogačar: Cycling’s Marvel man
2025 stats
Last races: 1st UAE Tour, 1st Strade Bianche, 3rd Milan-San Remo
Last crash: Strade Bianche
Upcoming races: E3 Saxo Classic, Gent-Wevelgem, Tour of Flanders, Amstel Gold Race, La Flèche Wallonne, Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Critérium du Dauphiné, Tour de France
Pogačar reminded everyone at Strade Bianche why he’s cycling’s closest thing to a character out of Marvel comics.
A freak crash on a downhill paved section could’ve spelled disaster, but within seconds he was back on the bike — only with a torn rainbow jersey and some thorns as souvenirs — and then soloed to a record-setting third victory in Siena.
Also read: Cipressa, Poggio records fall in explosive Milan-San Remo
He turned what could have been a face-plant moment into yet another chapter in the growing Pogačar mythology. He even made a T-shirt about it.
But as everyone saw Saturday at Milan-San Remo, he is still human.
Despite blowing up the race on the Cipressa, Mathieu van der Poel and Filippo Ganna had the jet fuel to follow. Yes, Milan-San Remo was won from an attack on the Cipressa, the first in nearly 30 years, but it wasn’t Pogi doing the winning.
As for Paris-Roubaix? A decision is expected this week, but it’s looking like a hard “no” for 2025.
UAE Emirates-XRG brass are reportedly not keen after that scare at Strade Bianche. Risking another crash on the brutal pavé of Roubaix isn’t what Mauro Gianneti can stomach, not with a yellow jersey at stake in July.
Pogačar doesn’t crash often, but when he does, it can cast a long shadow.
The last major spill came at the 2023 Liège-Bastogne-Liège, when he broke his wrist early in the race. That haunted him into July, when Vingegaard smashed him at the Tour. His tumble in Tuscany was a wake-up call, but one he escaped from miraculously unscathed.
The next stretch of his calendar includes a packed agenda through the northern classics and only his second career start at Critérium du Dauphiné, one of the few major titles missing from his palmarès. He’ll sandwich that with altitude training as he zeroes in on the Tour.
So far, the only thing that seems capable of slowing Pogačar … is Pogačar.
With wild weather, unpredictable crashes, and hellish roads ahead, the next month across Belgium is about survival as much as success.
If he makes it to July without mishap, there may be no stopping him.
Well, unless longtime nemesis Van der Poel suddenly grows wings in the Alps.
Remco Evenepoel: The missing man
2025 stats
Last races: None
Last crash: December
Upcoming races: Brabantse Pijl, Amstel Gold Race, La Flèche Wallonne, Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Dauphiné, Tour de France
Evenepoel is the missing man of 2025.
He’s not raced since finishing second to Pogacar at Il Lombardia, and though he’s usually a high-profile presence in racing and on social media, he’s kept things quiet.
The double Olympic champion is still recovering from his crash in December when he struck a postal service van during a training ride that left him with a gnarly shoulder injury.
Since then? Radio silence, and a whole lot of rehab.
He’s only just returned to riding on open roads, and the layoff leaves big questions about how long it will take him to regain race shape.
Among the Big 4, he’s the only one who hasn’t raced. And that absence raises big questions: How bad is that shoulder injury? And can he still hit Tour de France form in time?
Soudal Quick-Step confirmed to Velo that Brabantse Pijl next month is still on his schedule for his season debut ahead of the Ardennes classics.
Whether he returns to racing in April in race-winning form isn’t as important as if he still has runway to hit his peak in time for the Tour de France.
Last year, Evenepoel recovered from the high-speed crash at Itzulia Basque Country in April in time to achieve his 2024 goals of a Tour de France podium and a stage win and stampede to double-gold in Paris.
Also read: Evenepoel’s comeback is ‘starting at zero’
But 2025 feels different.
There’s no rush to bring him back to racing and Quick-Step sports director Tom Steels told Velo in January that Evenepoel’s injury required a more cautious approach.
“It’s not the ideal way back into the season, but you have to deal with it,” Steels told Velo. “It’s really a buildup from zero. You have to take it easy with a shoulder. That takes time, at least a few months, to get back and be ready again.”
Can Evenepoel hope to be back in podium-fighting form by July?
Right now, nobody knows. Not even Remco.
Conclusions: Pogačar’s yellow to lose
If you look at the big picture, Pogacar is in the driver’s seat right now.
He’s still flying or perhaps even better than last year, and the loss at Milan-San Remo will only make him more dangerous. If he stays healthy and upright in his rainbow jersey season, UAE can put the champagne on ice for a fourth yellow jersey in July.
V-Lab is playing it cautious with Vingegaard, and rightly so.
Staying in Paris-Nice or racing Catalunya would have contributed little to nothing to the larger goal of reclaiming yellow. For the Dane to have any chance at all, everything needs to go absolutely perfect. The Dauphiné in June will tell us where everyone stands.
Also read: ‘Big 4’ early season scorecard
For Evenepoel, well, everything is a complete unknown.
A shoulder injury shouldn’t impact his overall motor, so if the team has given him room to recover, he shouldn’t be missing that much. Sure, there might be a lack of spark in the legs from not racing, but Evenepoel’s class can carry the day.
Improving on last year will be difficult, but even more important is confirming he belongs in this elite club of yellow jersey contenders.
And finally with Roglič, Red Bull’s insistence that he races the Giro reveals much.
It seems at first glance that they don’t believe that he can win the Tour going head-to-head with Pogačar and Vingegaard.
Yet knowing Roglič’s hot-and-cold racing style, maybe detouring him through the Giro — where he can probably come close to winning again with his scrappy, street-fighting style — will take off all the pressure for July.
Perhaps a stroke of Red Bull genius? An unshackled Roglič with nothing to lose could prove very dangerous.
This could be the last year of the “Big 4,” so let’s enjoy it.
It’s unprecedented in modern cycling to have four legitimate contenders lining up for yellow. Here’s hoping all four arrive in top racing shape.
