The sense of expectation is almost palpable. The whole of the rugby community in Australia has drawn a collective breath and is waiting for the opportunity to exhale. ‘Bated breath’ would be an understatement. The suspense surrounding the identity of Joe Schmidt’s replacement as Wallaby head coach is becoming unbearable.
Over the weekend, Joe Schmidt protegé Noah Lolesio cited the ongoing vacancy as one reason why he was leaving home shores for Japan: “Joe not being here after The Rugby Championship definitely made it tougher for me to stay, to be honest. Just the unknown of who the next coach will be. And me potentially, if I do stay, then going through the whole cycle again.”
It is time for Rugby Australia to make up its mind up, to avoid a further withering round of uncertainty. One key piece in the puzzle will be maintaining continuity, and a sense of integrity with the game at Super Rugby level. As new High Performance Director Peter Horne commented in November 2024:
“How do we turn green shoots into gold?”
“Rugby Australia was siloed – the Wallabies was the flagship so it had its own staff and that team operated separately from our Wallaroos and Sevens and Super Rugby teams. We needed to connect them if we were going to reflect, learn and grow as one team.
“The shared mission is to create a sustainable system that develops our players and coaches to be world class. Centralisation? Alignment? Yadda Yadda Yadda. The reality is about people connecting as a team.”
Kiss and his team are building something significant at Ballymore, and the progress they have made would come to a grinding halt. Work would have to start all over again from scratch.
If the system is to be sustainable, it cannot afford traumatic upheavals – the changes need to be progressive and harmonious. When you link those comments to the current situation of the Queensland Reds, it does little to promote the claims of Les Kiss to the top job; at least, if he wants to move into the Wallaby White House with all his current Queensland coaching staff – Brad Davis, John Fisher and Zane Hilton – en bloc.
While breakdown and defence specialist ‘Lord’ Laurie Fisher and scrum guru Mike Cron have indicated they will retire at the same time Schmidt departs in November, it would leave Forwards coach Geoff Parling and Skills mentor Eoin Toolan sitting high-and-dry.
It would also rip a huge hole in Queensland’s development at a time the Reds can least afford it. Kiss and his team are building something significant at Ballymore, and the progress they have made would come to a grinding halt. Work would have to start all over again from scratch.
Praise has been flowing freely since Les Kiss arrived from Irish before the start of the 2024 Super Rugby season, and rightly so. Rob Simmons, who played for him at the Madejski Stadium, praised his ability to create professionalism within a playing group: “Kissy’ will be good for development. He will get everyone to start thinking of the game at a higher level, how to attack and look at other team’s strengths and weaknesses.”
More recently, ex-Queensland legend James O’Connor ruminated on the development of the Reds’ franchise over his six-year second coming with the club:
“Working with [ex-Queensland backs coach] Jim McKay started to burn a fire about coaching.
“Les and the other coaches are easily the most cohesive group I have ever worked with and I’m thankful I got to be part of it last year. Each of the coaches is synced up in every part of the game.”
James O’Connor
“I am very grateful that ‘Thorny’ gave me a second chance at the Reds. My second life in the maroon jersey has meant a lot more to me, and that 2021 Super Rugby AU season is probably my favourite in any sort of rugby.
“In our group that year, a lot went from boys to men when we won the Super Rugby AU competition.”
“Les and the other coaches are easily the most cohesive group I have ever worked with and I’m thankful I got to be part of it last year. Each of the coaches is synced up in every part of the game.”
In that precis, the progress from the days of Jim McKay and Brad Thorn to Les Kiss and his current coaching cohorts sounds relatively harmonious. But the truth is that Kiss is still building the foundations in Queensland and the work is far from complete. Let’s play statistical devil’s advocate for a minute, with the Reds key losses:
The Reds are yet to beat a top four opponent in either season, bar the Western Force in 2025, twice by the same scoreline [28-24]. They have not yet established that they can beat the top sides from New Zealand, and they have not established that they are top dog in Aussie, ahead of the perennial overachievers from Canberra. That is what makes the round nine game between the Reds and Brumbies one to savour. The double-header this coming Saturday at the Suncorp, and on May 17th at GIO stadium, will tell us just how far the Reds have really progressed after receiving the ‘Queensland Kiss’.
The law of natural selection in sport is utterly lucid. As a player or coach, you need to prove you have achieved results at one level before you advance to a higher tier. And right now, Les Kiss and his coaching staff do not have the pelts on their ponies. As a Director of Rugby with Neil Doak as his senior coach, Kiss achieved Pro 12 semi-finals with Ulster [2014-2017], but the province was knocked out of the Champions Cup at the pool stages. As a head coach with London Irish [2018-2023], finishes improved from 10th in the English Premiership in 2019-20 to 5th in 2022-23, and the club progressed to the round of 16 in his, and its last season. But there was no silverware.
Les Kiss has shown the ability to improve himself and the teams he manages, but as a head coach he still has to prove he can win competitions. It would therefore, be a huge gamble for Rugby Australia to go ‘all-in’ on Queensland in one hand of poker, importing the entire coaching team from Ballymore to the Wallabies.
More specific coaching question-marks have emerged over recent weeks. In last weekend’s game against the Chiefs, the Reds maintained their record of refusing every penalty goal opportunity in 2025 in favour of kicking for the corner, and going for a short-range lineout drive instead. It left experienced commentators on Sky Sport’s The Breakdown panel dazed and confused:
“The Reds – I just can’t get over the stat: 30 odd points they’ve turned down? They haven’t taken a shot at goal all year!” [Mils Muliaina]
“I don’t understand it when I think about rugby IQ and changing momentums, and shifting scoreboard pressure and earning the points.” [Jeff Wilson]
Queensland came out in the red on their policy, scoring a good driving lineout try in the 19th minute, only to be rebuffed by a replica of the same defensive pattern twice in the second period:
The technique is the same in both clips. The Chiefs’ fringe defenders ‘peel the orange’ on both sides of the drive, dragging blockers away until the ball-carrier [Matt Faessler in the first instance, Tate McDermott in the second] is exposed to a man coming late up the middle. Prop George Dyer duly wins the first turnover, number 8 Luke Jacobson rips the ball away in the second.
One of the riders to the Reds’ policy is that it does not expose their goal-kickers to any pressure situations off the tee. These are precisely the scenarios they would be asked to handle in Test matches, but the uncertainty surrounding the best future option at the position, for both club and country still looms. James O’Connor again:
“What I hope I did was share some knowledge and wisdom with Harry [McLaughlin-Phillips], Tom [Lynagh] and Lawson [Creighton] as number 10’s. Things like reading situations, how to get more looks, when to take on the line, the territory game and so on. Probably the highlight of my year was seeing the growth of the two younger guys, Tom and Harry.”
Creighton may have moved on to New South Wales, but who will make the step up quickest at a higher level – Lynagh or McLaughlin-Phillips? Harry came out well in credit on a miserable evening against the Chiefs, and his trump card compared to Lynagh is his more robust defensive work:
McLaughlin-Phillips has the nuggety physique to be an on-ball threat, but even more importantly he has the compact frame to stop power runners like Quinn Tupaea one-on-one:
All three runs by one of the comeback kings of Kiwi rugby finish in turnovers – a forward pass in the first clip, and two handling errors in the second and third. It looked very much like the young Reds’ #10 was relishing the physical contest. In contrast, Tom Lynagh tended to be tucked away from the front line of D when he came on in the 58th minute:
No Harry in the 10 channel? Chiefs’ full-back Shaun Stevenson gets the green light to bust straight through on first phase, with Tom cruising across from his starting spot on the blind-side wing into acting full-back on the following play.
On attack, McLaughlin-Phillips showed lethal intent as a second touch runner, and his highlight moment arrived in the 48th minute:
The mystery surrounding the identity of the new Wallabies head coach and/or Director of Rugby deepens by the week. Whatever the final solution, the road least likely is the wholesale migration of the Reds coaching staff to equivalent roles with the Wallabies.
While there is still unfinished business in Queensland, the coaching staff in Ballymore should stay put. A complete overhaul of the group Joe Schmidt put in place would be an expensive exercise, and that would hardly promote the continuity Peter Horne said he wanted, at either club or international level. Changes ought to be kept to a minimum, and Rugby Australia would be wise to hold its big blue chips back for another day.
