As Matt Sherratt, Matt Jones and Joe Schmidt have all proven, a new manager bounce can help rugby teams in need
‘New Coach Bounce’ (NCB) may sound like a sub-genre of 1980s New York hip hop. But in the last month in rugby, particularly Welsh rugby, new coaches have certainly been bouncing.
The NCB refers to the uplift in performance when a new coach, or coaching staff, arrive at a club or national set up.
It’s a term that tended to exist primarily in soccer, more than rugby (before anyone pipes up, it was called soccer in South Wales in the 1980’s and old habits die hard). Yet now it has also become part of rugby’s vernacular.
The ‘bounce’ tended to be more noticeable in soccer (AI suggests 7.62 extra points on average over six matches) arguably because there’s a far higher turnover of coaches – often in midseason.
The switching of coaches in midseason gives supporters and the media an easy comparison between the old and the new, making the bounce more pronounced – something that rarely used to happen in rugby.
But as rugby has become more professional, points mean not only mean prizes, but a lack of points can also mean P45s.
The theory of new manager bounce
The theory of NCB is of course very loose and something which is hard to quantify. Which doesn’t quite fit with how we now digest rugby in the modern era.
20 years ago, rugby writers, pundits and supporters could be rather vague about coaches, players and performances.
What we saw or felt became the opinion – without any data to back it up. Whereas now that simply won’t do.
Where we once might have casually said that a player has good feet, can now be backed up with data on how many clean breaks those feet make, or how many defenders they have beaten. Yet as vague as the term NCB undoubtedly is, there are ways to back it up with stats – and this column bloody loves as stat.
Matt Sherratt, Interim Head Coach of Wales, talks to his players during a training session. (Photo by Dan Istitene/Getty Images)
Take Matt Sherratt for example. In just four training sessions he altered the entire Welsh squad’s attacking blueprint – there are species of Mimic Octopus who can’t change that quickly, nor convincingly.
Sherratt’s changes not only stopped a predicted hammering for Wales but allowed them to be genuinely competitive with Ireland for 75 minutes – which is something that not even an ayahuasca fuelled Nostradamus could have seen coming.
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Sherratt’s change in shape against Ireland was remarkable. Seeing Ben Thomas at 12, operating behind a midfield diamond, with options to the front, left, right and behind was a joy for Welsh supporters.
But the on-field coaching from Sherratt was only half of the ‘bounce’. The greatest bounce (more of a rebound actually) was that he picked players who Warren Gatland seemed to have fallen out with – namely Max Llewellyn.
Llewellyn offered a credible threat and ‘straightening option’, at 13, that Wales simply haven’t had in recent games.
Plus of course, he picked the afore-mentioned Ben Thomas at 12, which is where he actually plays for Cardiff Rugby. Thomas plays at number ten in the same way that the liberal democrats get to play at number 10 – virtually never.
Immediate difference
The difference in stats between Wales v Italy, and Wales v Ireland was staggering. Especially when you consider that Ireland are a far stronger team (although Italy are not without their charms).
Against Italy, Wales beat 17 defenders – against Ireland 33. Against Italy, Wales completed 55 passes – Ireland 227. Against Italy, Wales made 200m – against Ireland it was 397m. Against Italy, Wales had nine rucks in the opposition’s 22 – against Ireland it was 33. You get the point.
Adam Jones’ introduction to Wales’ coaching set up has also been rather bouncy. Not only has his personality injected some wit and charm into press conferences, but he has also injected stability into the Welsh scrum.
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During the first two games of the Six Nations, whilst Wales were hugely uncompetitive, the scrum was not. The Welsh scrum had reached valium levels of worry over the past 12 months, yet since Jones has arrived, they’ve only lost one scrummage in total.
Against Ireland, and the always impressive Andrew Porter, Wales were even dominant for large periods of the game – which almost felt surreal at the time.
Regional efforts
Then there’s the appointment of Mark Jones at the Ospreys. Who has created a buzz in the local area not witnessed since they opened the ‘Hydroslide’ at Swansea Leisure center in 1989 – it was epic.
Toby Booth did a fantastic job at the Ospreys and created some of the most solid foundations in Welsh regional rugby history, but Mark Jones has now taken those foundations and built a super sexy 23-bedroom house complete with bowling alley, infinity pool, cinema and clay tennis courts.
The Ospreys beat Glasgow away in round 12 of United Rugby Championship and are now playing a style of rugby that is very different on the eye and the spreadsheet – the attacking stats are through the roof.
The Ospreys beat more defenders than Glasgow, made more clean breaks, carried for more meters and also made more offloads.
To ‘out attack’ Glasgow, on their surface, really is quite an achievement for a team with roughly half the playing budget and is a legit feather in the cap for Jones – although hopefully not an Osprey’s feather as that would be weird.
International appeal
But this NCB isn’t just something that has occurred in Wales over the past few weeks, that would be spooky indeed.
The same has happened with the Wallabies under Joe Schmidt, where he has taken largely the same squad and radically changed the way they play – and with it improved their effectiveness.
Joe Schmidt has turned Australian rugby around. (Photo By David Fitzgerald/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
Why all of this happens, is of course up for debate. Is it simply because new coaches bring in more effective methods? Are players simply glad to see the back of the old regime and therefore lift their performance? Are players simply putting in another 10% effort to impress the new people in charge? Or is it a combination of the whole lot?
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With the examples above, there has been a clear change in the actual coaching – and that isn’t just an old school opinion, the data backs it up.
It makes us supporters appreciate that it’s not just players that matter at elite level – coaches are just as important.
The adage that coaching at elite level is largely about selection alone simply isn’t true and the case in point with the Welsh national team couldn’t be clearer.
The ’New Coach Bounce’ is real and as obvious as one of those mental bouncy balls that they made in the 1970’s. Keeping it bouncing though, is another matter.
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